Adrian BonenbergerMr. Bonenberger was an infantry officer in the U.S. Army from 2005-2012 and served twice in Afghanistan. He is now a freelance journalist.
On the ground in Ukraine
I spent a week in Yavoriv recently, watching my old unit, the 173rd, train two companies of Ukrainian National Guardsmen (NGU).
It was very impressive: Ukrainian soldiers moving and communicating tactically at a level that matched or exceeded most conventional U.S. units. For nearly seven years, I served as an infantry officer (over two of which I spent in Afghanistan) in combat; in my time training Afghan police and soldiers, I never saw a unit of Afghans that looked as professional as the Ukrainians.
Throughout that week, I heard artillery and tank fire—Ukrainian artillerymen training to increase their capacity to fight together as small units, working with mechanized assets, calling for fire from mortars and from artillery. They were part of a unified military based on principles of merit and organization rather than Soviet authority.
"If the Ukrainians continue to train hard, and build combat power—and I suspect that their incentive to do so is greater than that of their (mostly Russian) adversaries—there is a possible outcome here that I have yet seen described in Western media, nor have I heard it in Russian media, either:
Ukraine can defeat the separatists. Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield. Ukraine and its military does not know this, but it is possible. In fact, Russian overconfidence, Russian complacency and broken Russian doctrine makes it not just possible but even likely that a decisive, surprise combined-arms attack by a well-trained, reinvigorated Ukrainian military will be able to achieve complete surprise over its adversaries, surround them, and wipe them out."Risks of an endgame
This is the greatest risk we face for World War III. Not that Russia defeats Ukraine and moves toward Poland and Estonia, but that Ukraine wipes out the Russians currently in Ukraine, and Putin is forced to take some drastic action to prevent further losses. After all, why should Ukraine not feel entitled to take some of Russia’s territory in return for their lost Crimea? And who will be there to stop them, save demoralized and confused Russian conscripts?I hope Western negotiators are able to help Putin see the folly of his position in Ukraine, and sooner rather than later—the longer he stays in Ukraine, the more likely it is that he will suffer a dangerous and humiliating reverse.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2015/07/01/ukraine-can-defeat-the-separatists/
