незаангажований народ не очікує якихось глобальних зрушень від угоди. Тобто, вони радше очікують, що увесь ефект зведеться до непідвищення ціни.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-02/iran-moves-closer-to-restoring-oil-exports-after-nuclear-accordIran’s accord with world powers brings the OPEC member a step closer to restoring oil production that was cut by sanctions while leaving unresolved when it will happen.
The preliminary agreement outlined Thursday signals the Persian Gulf
nation may be able to resume exports within months of a final deal, which negotiators aim to conclude by June 30, according to UBS AG and
Commerzbank AG. Iran’s shipments abroad have been curbed 50 percent by measures imposed in mid-2012.
The return of Iran’s oil to a global market oversupplied by surging U.S. shale output threatens the price recovery fellow producers are expecting later this year. Minutes after the deal was announced, Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell as much as 5.4 percent. Under the accord, the U.S. and European Union would lift the economic sanctions if inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran’s compliance with curbs on its nuclear program.
“In essence, there will be more Iranian oil soon,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said by e-mail from Zurich. “For the time being, the announcement is bearish. Sanctions will be lifted following the OK from the IAEA. For me, that’s likely to come in the second half of the year.”
Oil’s Decline
Further price losses may be limited as there’s no guarantee a full deal will be reached by the June deadline, BNP Paribas SA said.
“It’s widely considered Iran’s crude production will not increase in the short run,” said Takayuki Nogami, a senior economist at Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. in Tokyo. “The agreement has been already factored into oil prices.”
While OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri predicted on March 8 that global oil markets will rebalance in the second half, Commerzbank expects Iranian output could almost double the current surplus and push Brent oil back toward a 5 1/2-year low.
Gradual Process
“If Iran does come back, we may not get any price uplift at all in the second half,” Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in New York, said by e-mail. “It could be a very gradual process to lift or suspend the sanctions. Obviously, it’s bearish as and when they start producing again.”
Iran could increase output by 800,000 barrels a day to its full capacity of 3.6 million within three months of sanctions ending, the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based adviser to 29 nations, said on Feb. 10. It holds the world’s fourth-largest crude reserves, according to BP Plc. Sanctions cut Iran’s oil exports by about 50 percent to 1 million barrels a day in 2013, according to the IEA and U.S. Congressional Research Service.
