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[Feral Cat]

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Mychailo Wynnyckyj: Thoughts from Kyiv - 16 June 2014

I understand from my informal contacts with western diplomats in Kyiv
(including military attaches) that western governments are baffled by
Russia. Given that Ukraine’s National Security Council met for over 5
hours today, I am relatively confident that the same goes for the
Poroshenko administration. The Ukrainian and EU political establishments
simply don’t know how to respond to the Kremlin; their mode of thought is
primarily reactive rather than proactive; they fear the consequences of
making a wrong move as much as those resulting from doing nothing. All
three of these observations indicate danger – grave danger not only to
Ukraine, but to the world.

So what to do? I will deliberately avoid prediction, but as someone who
has some background in social sciences, I’ll venture to provide some
policy advice.

I have called for this previously, and I am convinced that this continues
to be the correct move by western countries with respect to ongoing
Russian aggression, and persistent expansionist policies of the Kremlin:
NATO (or a several countries belonging to the alliance) should declare the
territory of Ukraine to be a “no-fly zone”. American, Canadian, British,
Polish, and German aircraft should be patrolling the skies over Ukraine on
a regular basis. Any and all surface-to-air weapons usage (e.g. the
shooting down of transport aircraft by mobile “Stinger-style” missiles, as
occurred early Saturday morning in the vicinity of Luhansk airport) is to
be deemed an act of aggression worthy of a military response from the air.
No NATO boots on the ground, but plenty of air support – this is what
Ukraine really needs right now.

[Feral Cat]

As for domestic action (i.e. by the Poroshenko administration), clearly
the eastern border needs to be closed (the idea proposed by Dnipropetrovsk
governor Ihor Kolomoyskyy – to build a chain-link fence and defensive
ditches all along the land border between Ukraine and Russia was approved
today by the National Security Council), the forces engaged in the
anti-terrorist operation in the eastern regions need to be better equipped
(e.g. with flak jackets and Kevlar helmets), and suspected moles within
the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Internal Affairs Ministry, Security Service,
and Border Guard Service need to be rooted out, prosecuted, and publicly
punished. But Ukraine’s authorities know all of this. What they seem not
to know is that in parallel with all of the above, they are obliged to
regularly inform the public of their actions. President Poroshenko should
be addressing the nation on a daily basis! This need not be more than a 3
minute short speech, but it needs to be done…

Furthermore, the President need not fear making a mistake during these
broadcasts. The Ukrainian public has given Mr. Poroshenko the benefit of a
great deal of doubt, and people trust their leader – for the moment. If
silence continues, that trust will wane. In today’s Ukraine people
understand that the President is human, and will make mistakes. If he is
honest in having made them, he will maintain his support. If not, he will
lose the battle for hearts and minds very soon. And then the country will
truly descend into anarchy…

[Feral Cat]

Russian propaganda is working intensely both in Ukraine and abroad. I was
shocked on Sunday, when I turned on Al Jazeera: instead of reporting on
the downing of the military transport near Luhansk (the story that has
dominated Ukraine’s news broadcast for the past 3 days), the report on
Ukraine focused on Russian foreign minister Lavrov’s “outrage” at the
Russian embassy in Kyiv having been pelted with eggs the previous day, and
his disappointment with his Ukrainian counterpart having called Russia’s
President an insulting name during the demonstration. The fact that Acting
Foreign Minister Deshchytsia’s comments (he called Putin a “dickhead” – to
paraphrase the extremely popular phrase currently circulating throughout
Ukraine: “Putin – khuylo!”) were aimed at defusing the emotions of the
demonstrators, and in fact may have contributed to the Russian embassy NOT
being stormed by the angry mob on Saturday evening, was not mentioned
during the Al Jazeera broadcast. Thankfully, this fact was publicly noted
by US Ambassador Pyatt today, who called Mr. Deshchytsia a “skilled
diplomat” in his Twitter.

Tonight however, while watching CNN’s interpretation of the current gas
dispute between Kyiv and Moscow, it became clear to me that the western
press responds more favorably to Kremlin spin doctors than to diplomats on
the ground. Business page headlines in the English-language newspapers on
Tuesday will echo the top story of the Financial times: “Russia cuts off
the gas to Ukraine”. This is FALSE!!! A full 55% of Russia’s gas exports
flow through a pipleline network that crosses Ukrainian territory. This
gas continues to flow. Do the Europeans trust that the Ukrainians will not
siphon off some of the EU-bound gas for their own use? Clearly the Kremlin
will accuse Kyiv of doing just that during the coming days, but I’m
confident the EU will (quietly?) support Ukraine when official denials are
issued by Kyiv. Which side will the western press believe?

[Feral Cat]

Few now doubt the intensity of Russian efforts in the global information
war. And the domestic Ukrainian front is not immune either. Several
stories appeared on Ukrainian websites today claiming that the IL-76
disaster in Luhansk on Saturday was actually caused by inept Ukrainian
troops. Similarly, Russian websites have reported artillery barrages
(supposedly launched by Ukrainian forces) being aimed at residential
buildings in Kramatorsk (Donetsk region). Apparently, the fact that
pro-Russian militants have actually admitted to shooting down the
Ukrainian military transport plane on Saturday with Russian-supplied
missiles, and that several pro-Russian fighters have posted photos of
their Russian-supplied mobile “Grad” missile launchers on their social
media pages, is no obstacle for Kremlin spin doctors. In fact, they’ve
dreamed up a quasi-credible conspiracy theory: apparently (according to
this fairytale), Ukraine’s post-revolutionary government is in such deep
economic crisis that its only chance of political survival is to provoke a
full-scale Russian invasion of the east. According to this fantasy, PM
Yatseniuk and President Poroshenko have decided that the only way that
they will be able to survive an “imminent” repeat of the Maidan revolution
(sparked by rising unemployment, a plummeting currency, unrest in the
eastern regions, a stagnating economy, and rising energy prices) is to
“artificially” blame the country’s woes on Russia. For this reason, it is
(apparently) in the interests of Kyiv to provoke the Kremlin…

To some (like me) this kind of rhetoric is cause for grave concern. Today,
the self-proclaimed “defense minister” of the so-called Donetsk People’s
Republic, Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) issued a televised statement during
which he openly called for Russian invasion. Apparently the pro-Russian
insurgency is just too weak to counter the onslaught of Ukraine’s Armed
Forces and Interior Ministry troops. Ominously (or perhaps as an
encouragement to Strelkov – himself a former Russian intelligence officer)
large scale troop movements on the Russian side of the border were
reported today by Ukrainian media. If these reports are confirmed by NATO
spy satellite imagery, I’ll be extremely nervous…

[Feral Cat]

Mr. Putin seems to enjoy following Stalin’s example: he appears to believe
in the significance of historical events. Hitler attacked Ukraine (at that
time the western USSR) on 22 June 1941. I don’t mean to be superstitious,
but coincidence seems to be vociferous:
20 January – violence suddenly erupts in Kyiv on Hrushevskoho St. (many
believe this was provoked artificially)
22 February – Yanukovych fleas Ukraine
21 March – Putin officially annexes Crimea to the Russian Federation
23 April – Lavrov publicly admits for the first time that Russian troops
are massing on the Ukrainian border in preparation for a possible invasion
22 May – the anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine’s Donbas results in its
first large-scale casualties – 8 servicemen killed in battle with
pro-Russian fighters near Volnovakha (Donetsk oblast).
Lately, each time the date on the calendar approaches the “20” mark, my
wife and I start getting nervous. And the fact that this month, the date
coincides with an anniversary of invasion does nothing to alleviate our
superstitions.

[ursusus]

NATO (or a several countries belonging to the alliance) should declare the
territory of Ukraine to be a “no-fly zone”. American, Canadian, British,
Polish, and German aircraft should be patrolling the skies over Ukraine on
a regular basis.

Дальшe можно нe постить...но, спасибо другу за поддeржку.

[polemistes]

22 May – the anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine’s Donbas results in its
first large-scale casualties – 8 servicemen killed in battle with
pro-Russian fighters near Volnovakha (Donetsk oblast).

Здається, їх було 18?

[EZelenyk]

Чего-то я тут не догоняю.
Бесполетная зона хороша если Россия ломанется со всей дури с войсками через границу - потому что у неё явное преимушество в воздухе, украинские ВВС можно поберечь.
Но пока идёт АТО - ВВС являются одним из эффективнейших средств поздравления террористов, на хер их запирать на земле?
 

[ursusus]

Ну, друг опираeтся на опыт побeд в Иракe, Ливии и пр.

[romulus]

де той третій рівень санкцій хіба їм не досить танків в україні?

[Kasia]

..