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keeler says:
January 8, 2020 at 1:09 am
About six seconds into the video, we can observe either burning fuel or debris trailing the plane.
About two seconds before final impact and the large explosion at the end of the video, we can observe a smaller explosion- probably the fire igniting the center fuel tank.
To me it appears the plane was disintegrating in flight and that this disintegration involved the fuselage.
Obviously there was also a concurrent fire. By the time the recording begins, this fire is not localized (ie it is no longer, if it ever was, a single burning engine) but, judging by size, but has spread to much of the plane.
Given that the plane had just taken off, and that it reportedly began to lost altitude after reaching about 7,000 ft, there seems to be little time for the plane to experience a fire-causing engine failure, and for that fire to spread to the fuselage and cause the fuselage to begin disintegrating mid-air.
Thus the most likely mechanical failure needed to cause such an intense and rapidly growing fire seems unlikely. Wiring or landing gear fires are possibilities, but remote ones.
What we observe is not consistent with how planes typically crash when they experience mechanical failure. It is however, consistent with how planes crash when they have experienced a non-mechanically caused explosion, ie a bomb, missile, or collision.
The Iranian government was quick to point away from these possibilities and towards mechanical failure. There is no a second plane or object, so that is ruled out. We would expect a bombing to blamed on the US; this did not happen, so that is ruled that out as well.
Which leaves us with one possibility. We know what that is, and given the the current state of affairs this possibility seems more plausible than bad wiring or a burning tire.
